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The following table lists all the future Earth impact events that the JPL
has detected based on currently available observations.
Click on the object designation to go to a page with full details on that object.
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Use the "CSV" or "Excel" buttons to download the data for use in your spreadsheet program.
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Machine-readable data are available. See the
The color of the table row gives a rough interpretation of the severity of the threat. White or gray colors indicate a Torino scale of 0 or undefined. All other colors (green, yellow, orange, and red) represent their respective Torino scale.
Temporary designation or permanent number for this object.
Calendar date (UTC) of the potential impact.
Minimum distance on the target plane (scaled b-plane) from the LOV to the geocenter, measured in Earth radii. For these purposes the radius of the Earth, 6420 km, includes some allowance for the thickness of the atmosphere.
One-sigma semi-width of the LOV uncertainty region, measured in Earth radii.
Lateral distance in sigmas from the LOV to the Earth's atmosphere. Zero indicates that the LOV intersects the Earth. It is computed from (Distance - 1)/Width.
Coordinate along the Line Of Variations (LOV). This value is a measure of how well the impacting orbit fits the available observations. Zero indicates the best-fitting, central (nominal) orbit and the further from zero, the less likely the event: Roughly 99% of all the uncertainty region lies between -3 and +3. Sentry explores out to Sigma LOV = +/-5.
Stretch LOV (rEarth)
Stretching is the semimajor axis of the local linear uncertainty region. It describes how fast one moves across the target plane as Sigma LOV changes, and is measured in Earth radii per sigma. The local probability density varies inversely with the stretching, and thus larger stretching values will generally lead to lower impact probabilities.
Probability that the tabulated impact will occur. The probability computation is complex and depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify. For these reasons the stated probability can easily be inaccurate by a factor of a few, and occasionally by a factor of ten or more.
Impact Energy (Mt)
Kinetic energy at impact, based upon the computed absolute magnitude and impact velocity for the particular case, and computed in accordance with the guidelines stated for the Palermo Technical Scale. Uncertainty in this value is dominated by mass uncertainty and the stated value will generally be good to within a factor of three.
Hazard rating according to the Torino impact hazard scale, based on the tabulated impact probability and impact energy. The Torino scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future.