Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring

2024-Jun-06

We updated the impact hazard assessment of (29075) 1950 DA. Relative to the previous assessment, the new results are based on an observation arc extended through 2023-10-03, which includes astrometry from the Gaia Focused Product Release. The results are presented in Fuentes-Munoz et al. (2024).

2024-May-13

2024 JV8 was determined to be artificial (MPEC 2024-J297). The corresponding records have therefore been removed from the Sentry tables.

2022-Mar-29

We updated the impact hazard assessment of (29075) 1950 DA. Relative to the previous assessment, the new results are based on an observation arc extended by six years, more recent statistical treatment of astrometric data (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020Icar..33913596E/abstract and https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Icar..296..139V/abstract), and JPL’s DE441 planetary ephemeris. The calculation was performed by the Sentry-II system, which now allows a more automatic handling of this special case.

2021-Aug-23

We have implemented a new impact monitoring algorithm that replaces the Line-of-Variations (LOV) method that Sentry has used over the last two decades. The new technique incorporates an impact pseudo-observation to the orbit-determination process to converge to impact trajectories that are compatible with the observational data. The new approach is generally more robust and reliable than the LOV method for certain strongly nonlinear situations and handling nongravitational parameters. This paper describes the algorithm in full detail.

As part of the transition to the new algorithm, all objects in the NEA catalog have been reprocessed. Minor differences with respect to the data computed with the LOV method are inevitable due to the statistical nature of the system. The objects for which the new algorithm cannot find virtual impactors have been moved to the Removed Objects table.

2021-Aug-11

We updated the impact hazard assessment for asteroid (101955) Bennu using the positional data from the OSIRIS-REx mission. The results are presented in detail in the recent publication Farnocchia et al. (2021).

2021-May-27

After five of its eight original observations have been reassigned, 2017 DC120 now only has three observations and no MPC orbit. We therefore removed 2017 DC120 from the JPL small-body database and the Sentry tables.

2021-May-24

We have updated the impact hazard assessment of asteroid 2020 CD3 based on orbit solution 23 published in Naidu et al. (2021). The solution includes an estimate of the radial acceleration parameter A1 related to the solar radiation pressure.

2021-Apr-13

We are recomputing all risk tables with the most recent planetary ephemeris, designated DE441. Our asteroid perturber model has been updated accordingly. Cases of higher interest will not change significantly between runs. However, objects with very low impact probabilities are only detected on a statistical basis. Therefore, we will find some new potential impacts (and potential impactors) and will not identify some that were found in previous searches.

2021-Mar-26

The optical and radar observations of (99942) Apophis collected during the current apparition rule out any possible impact for the next 100 years. More details are provided in this JPL News story.

2021-Feb-23

2020 SO was determined to be artificial (MPEC 2021-D62). The corresponding records have therefore been removed from the Sentry tables.

2021-Jan-20

(99942) Apophis is currently observable and the observations that have been collected so far in the current apparition, which runs roughly from December 2020 to May 2021, provide useful information on its orbit and impact hazard assessment. In particular, the Yarkovsky effect acting on Apophis is now significantly constrained. Subsequent, albeit not necessarily frequent, updates are planned through the end of the apparition as more observations are collected.

2020-May-26

We updated the reporting of the Palermo Scale. Instead or referring to the time of the impact hazard assessment calculation, the Palermo Scale is reevaluated daily to reflect the current time to impact, rounded up to the nearest number of years.

2020-Apr-13

2020 GL2 was determined to be ESA’s BepiColombo spacecraft by the Minor Planet Center (MPEC 2020-G97). The corresponding records have therefore been removed from the Sentry tables.

2020-Mar-10

The MPC originally designated 2019 OF5 by linking two tracklets over two nights for a total of six observations (MPEC 2019-P91). The corresponding linkage was later retracted by the MPC by splitting the two tracklets: one for 2019 OF5 and the other for 2019 OG5 (MPC 114960). Similarly, 2019 QS8 was designated by linking two tracklets over two nights for a total of four observations (MPEC 2019-S08). Also, this linkage was retracted since part of the dataset belonged to asteroid 75462 (MPS 1027499). 2016 PO66 was designated in MPEC 2016-Q06. Subsequently, all observations for 2016 PO66 were deleted in MPC 108699-108700. Therefore, 2019 OF5, 2019 QS8, and 2016 PO66 have been removed from the Sentry tables.

2020-Feb-06

2018 AV2 was determined to be artificial (https://minorplanetcenter.net/iau/artsats/artsats.html). The corresponding records have therefore been removed from the Sentry tables.

2019-Jul-18

We have specifically removed the 2019-09-09 potential impact for 2006 QV89 because of negative detections in the predicted region of the sky for that Virtual Impactor within images obtained by the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) on July 4 and 5 (see ESA news story). While the asteroid itself has not been detected in 2019 and its true position is therefore still very uncertain, the position for the 2019-09-09 virtual impactor can be predicted very accurately. The VLT observations covered this position, and if the asteroid had been there it would have been easily detected.

Update 2020-Mar-31
2006 QV89 was detected by Dave Tholen with CFHT and the observations published in MPEC 2019-P85, which was issued on 2019-Aug-11. These additional observations confirm the removal of the virtual impactor.

2019-Jul-16

We have computed an updated impact probability table for (410777) 2009 FD. The new assessment makes use of the optical astrometry collected in early 2019, which allowed significant constraints on the semimajor axis drift caused by the Yarkovsky effect acting on (410777) and in turn on the future trajectory of the asteroid. The results are based on the Multilayer Clustered Sampling Technique presented in detail in Del Vigna et al. (2019).

Update 2020-Nov-18
New observations of (410777) 2009 FD from the Catalina Sky Survey on 2020-Nov-16 (MPEC 2020-W27), ruled out the remaining virtual impactor in 2190.

2017-Sep-28

We have enhanced Sentry to optionally perform the impact search using a Monte Carlo (MC) approach. This approach is more computationally expensive than the standard Line-of-Variations (LOV) method and so will only be used when appropriate. For this reason, we removed all LOV-specific columns from the general VI Table. LOV-specific and MC-specific columns are available in the object details page.

2017-Apr-06

We have transitioned to an improved weighting scheme for asteroid astrometry as described in a recently submitted paper by Veres et al. 2017. Moreover, we updated the set of main belt perturbing bodies to account for more recent mass estimates (Folkner et al. 2014). Because of the statistical nature of Sentry’s impact search, these changes will give results that might differ from previous runs. Some new low impact probability cases could be found and some previous low probability cases could disappear. However, higher impact probability cases will not be significantly affected.

2016-Jan-21

We have updated the hazard assessment of (410777) 2009 FD to include astrometry obtained during the latest apparition from October to December 2015. In particular, the new results account for recent radar observations and the revised estimate of the asteroid’s size. The computation includes the Yarkovsky effect as estimated from the fit to the astrometric observations.

2015-Dec-07

We have updated the 2880 impact probability for (29075) 1950 DA to include the debiasing and weighting scheme by Farnocchia et al. 2015 and use the DE431 version of JPL’s planetary ephemerides. The computation was performed with a Monte Carlo sampling of the orbital elements and the Yarkokovsky effect, as estimated from the fit to the astrometric observations.

2015-Mar-02

We have computed an updated impact probability table for (99942) Apophis. The new table is based on the recent publication by Vokrouhlicky et al. (2015). The new table relies on a refined estimate of the Yarkovsky effect that accounts for the non-principal axis rotation of Apophis (Pravec et al., 2014) and the most recent estimates of diameter and thermal inertia (Mueller et al., 2014).

2014-Aug-19

We have updated the 2880 impact probability for (29075) 1950 DA to account for the additional information on the asteroid’s physical model as described in Rozitis et al., “Cohesive forces prevent the rotational breakup of rubble-pile asteroid (29075) 1950 DA”, Nature, vol. 512, pp. 174-176.

2014-Apr-29

The 2009 FD potential impact tabulation has been updated to incorporate uncertainties due to the Yarkovsky effect, which dominates over present day position uncertainties. Therefore the current posting may not be updated until enough new observations or other information are available to warrant a recomputation.

2014-Mar-03

We have updated the risk table for 101955 Bennu based on the research described by Chesley et al., “Orbit and Bulk Density of the OSIRIS-REx Target Asteroid (101955) Bennu” (Icarus, in press, 2014) [Preprint]. The new results make use of Arecibo radar astrometry from September 2011, which yields a high-precision estimate of the Yarkovsky effect and in turn the bulk density of Bennu. The new cumulative impact probability is about 1 in 2700.

2013-Nov-25

We have updated the 2880 impact probability for (29075) 1950 DA based on recently reported 2012 radar astrometry. The results are based on Farnocchia and Chesley (2013), which has been revised to account for the 2012 observations and is now in press on Icarus.

2013-Oct-04

We have now computed an impact probability for (29075) 1950 DA in 2880 and posted the results to the risk page. This is based on the recent publication by Farnocchia and Chesley (2013), now accepted by Icarus. As in the case for Apophis, below, the new hazard assessment for 1950 DA accounts for the Yarkovsky effect, despite the fact that it has so far not been definitively seen in the orbital motion. This requires us to account for potential orbital variations due to uncertainties in the physical properties of the asteroid, such as spin axis orientation, thermal inertia and bulk density.

2013-Aug-12

We are nearing completion of a recomputation of all risk tables with an updated planetary ephemeris, designated DE431, which will better model the gravitational perturbations of the planets. Our asteroid perturber model has been updated to be consistent with DE431, and we are now using perturbations from the 16 most massive main-belt asteroids, rather than only the largest three as was done in the past. Note that many objects with very low impact probabilities are only detected on a statistical basis, and so this recomputation can yield different results than those obtained before for these low interest cases. In particular, we will find some new potential impacts (and potential impactors) and will not identify some that were found in previous searches. Cases of higher interest will not change significantly between runs.

2013-May-01

We have updated the risk table for 99942 Apophis based on the recently released radar astrometry as well as optical astrometry through 2013-Apr-26. For the hazard assessment we continue to apply the technique discussed by Farnocchia et al. (Icarus, v. 224, pp.192-200, 2013). The updated Fig. 6 from the Farnocchia et al. paper shows the current estimate for the probability distribution on the 2029 b-plane. The 2036 keyhole, which was previously of some interest, is situated at approximately -1600 km on the abscissa (i.e., outside the plot boundaries). The hazard assessment is now quite stable and we do not intend to update again until there is significant new observational information for Apophis, which could come as early as June, when the [next radar observations](http://www.naic.edu/~pradar/sched.shtml> are planned.

2013-Jan-09

We have updated the risk table for 99942 Apophis based on the recent publication by Farnocchia et al.

2011-Sep-20

We have transitioned to the debiasing and weight scheme described in Chesley, Baer and Monet (Icarus, vol. 210, pp. 158-181). This means that we are treating the asteroid observational data in a way that is more consistent with the statistical uncertainties and that has been shown to produce better fits and more reliable predictions. As explained in our 2010-Dec-7 note below, such a recomputation necessarily leads to minor changes in the listings, as well as some new additions and removals to the object list.

2010-Dec-07

As a part of fielding some enhancements to our process we are rerunning all objects in order to bring them up-to-date with our current software and dynamical models. Note that many objects with very low impact probabilities are only detected on a statistical basis, and so this recomputation can yield different results than those obtained before for these low interest cases. In particular, we will find some new potential impacts (and potential impactors) and will not identify some that were found in previous searches. Cases of higher interest will not change between runs.

2010-Nov-23

Updating our note of 2010-Jul-26 below, another object has been found to have potential impacts in the far future, beyond 100 years. 2009 FD is roughly 130 m in diameter with an estimated 1 in 435 chance of impact in 2185. The current analysis assumes only gravitational accelerations and does not incorporate the potentially important Yarkovsky (thermal) accelerations. Thus the 2009 FD Risk Table may be refined by future analyses that attempt to incorporate a more complete dynamical model.

2010-Jul-26

In some cases, investigations into potential impacts are conducted for more than 100 years into the future. Currently, there are two well-observed objects for which long-term analyses have been carried out.

1. Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, has a significant possibility of impact on March 16, 2880. A careful computation of the impact probability, which is less than 0.33%, is challenging because the orientation of its spin pole is poorly known. Giorgini et al. (Science, Vol. 296. no. 5565, pp. 132 - 136, 2002) analyzed this object’s motion, which is discussed here.

2. The second object, (101955) 1999 RQ36, currently has non-zero impact probabilities on numerous occasions during the years after 2165. This is analyzed in a paper published by Milani et al. (Icarus, Vol. 203, pp. 460-471, 2009).

Note the Torino Scale is formally undefined for potential impacts more than one century into the future and so not applicable in such cases.

2009-Oct-07

The risk assessment for Apophis has been updated to reflect new astrometry released by Tholen et al. (DPS 2009) and dispersions due to the Yarkovsky effect. Results reported by Chesley et al. at the 2009 Division of Planetary Sciences meeting.

2008-May-18

Sentry has switched to a new server and management architecture. As a part of this transition, all objects in the NEA catalog were reanalyzed with the new system. This recomputation leads inevitably to minor differences in the results due to the statistical nature of the impact monitoring algorithms.