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Apophis Trajectory Sensitivity

Apophis Trajectory Sensitivity (2006-2036)

Maximum prediction error by 2036 due to factors not considered in the Standard Dynamical Model (other than solar radiation). These smaller error sources remain less than 3 km by 2029, but are amplified to as much as 23 Earth-radii only 7 years later by Earth’s gravity field during the close-approach.

Figure by J. Giorgini (JPL).